A Standards-Guided Multi-Criteria Decision Model for Preliminary Selection of UAV Outer-Shell Material Architectures

Abstract

This study presents a standards-guided multi-criteria decision model for preliminary selection of unmanned-aerial-vehicle outer-shell material architectures. Eleven printable polymers, fibre-reinforced thermoplastics, laminates, metals, and cellular systems are evaluated against twelve mechanical, impact, environmental, thermal, RF, manufacturing, repair, and lifecycle criteria. A transparent weighted-sum model is combined with evidence-confidence coding, mission-specific weight sets, one-way sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation. Under the explicitly bounded reference case, the PETG-CF lattice obtains the highest deterministic score (3.758/5), followed by continuous-fibre carbon-nylon (3.550/5) and a PETG/ABS honeycomb hybrid (3.500/5). The ranking is mission dependent: continuous-fibre and CFRP architectures lead stiffness-dominated cases, RF-transparent thermoplastics lead RF-sensitive enclosures, and aluminium leads the thermal/fire-constrained case. In 100,000 baseline simulations (score uncertainty σ = 0.18 and Dirichlet-distributed weights), PETG-CF ranks first in 93.84% of trials; its simulated mean score is 3.748, standard deviation 0.086, and 95% interval 3.579–3.914. These results are model-based screening outcomes, not empirical qualification. The model therefore recommends hybrid, function-zoned shells and specifies the coupon-, panel-, and shell-level tests required before design release.