Assessing Critical Success Factors for Industry 4.0 Adoption in Chinese Manufacturing: An Explainable XGBoost-SHAP Study

Abstract

The current study investigates the factors that contribute to the successful adoption of Industry 4.0 by Chinese manufacturing organizations. The data were collected using a quantitative survey questionnaire given to key informant managers. The sample consisted of 202 complete questionnaires obtained from firms that had adopted one or more Industry 4.0 technologies. XGBoost was used to predict implementation success, and SHAP was applied to interpret the relative contribution, direction, and interaction of the predictors. The results identify supplier support, pilot projects, technology competence, and top-management support as the strongest drivers of implementation success, while compatibility has a positive but more moderate contribution and perceived complexity acts as a constraint when organizational readiness is weak. Practically, the study proposes an explainable diagnostic approach that helps managers prioritize supplier collaboration, staged piloting, workforce capability development, and executive governance in digital-transformation programs.